Oregon State: 84-70, (54.5%) The schedule that produces the lowest probability of winning is deemed the best SOS. 14. 29. 2022 NCAA | Turner Sports Interactive, Inc. ESPNs F ootball P ower I ndex is more of he same Trust Five Conferences institutionalized Bias in plain sight but not officially part of the committee Members metrics although its quoted throughout the whole off season, September & Oktober leading up to the top 4 Team Rankings in November. FIU: 68-82, (45.3%) East Carolina: 79-71, (52.7%) In addition this method lists Mississippi State and Boise State as having equally tough schedules (98-58). These are the biggest stadiums in college football, Here are the final top 25 College Football Playoff rankings, Recapping conference championship weekend, College Football Playoff rankings release schedule, Michigan thinking big thoughts, Ohio State wondering about CFP hopes after The Game blowout, The schools the most CFP rankings without making the playoff, CFP likelihood of a Week 6 undefeated team, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. 103. Central Michigan: 72-80, (47.4%) 91. Georgia State: 83-71, (53.9%) 6 in strength of record and No. 104. Ball State: St 74-79, (48.4%) To eliminating the inconsistency of the CFP Committee, we need a better, more objective way to choose the top 4 teams in College Football or an expanded playoff with more than 4 teams. Does Ohio State get in over Southern California? View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers. Will USC be penalized for playing and losing in their conference championship game, allowing Ohio State to rise above them? 101. Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. 19 Kentucky (0-0) 38 Fresno State (0-0) Army: 82-69, (54.3%) You can follow him on Twitter @stan_becton. South Alabama: 66-81, (44.9%) Purdue 70-79, (47.0%) ESPNs Strength of Record metric reflects chance that an average Top 25 team would have teams record or better, given the schedule. This metric analyzes a teams resume, uses only their schedule, wins and losses, and opponent strength. 49. 81. The 2022 Georgia football schedule, including game times, scores, opponents, TV channels and locations. 4 overall despite the one loss to Michigan. Rk Team Rec FBS FEI OFEI Rk DFEI Rk NDE Rk ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk 1 Georgia 13-0 12-0 1.51 1.73 4 1.46 1 2.46 1 1.48 19 4.58 9 8.48 6 2 16 Arkansas (0-0) 36 Utah State (0-0) 87. 6 in strength of record and No. Our Strength of Schedule Remaining rankings show the average difficulty of opponents each team will face for the rest of the season. Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and Michigan State are all in the East division, while the West division contains Wisconsin and Iowa. The Crimson Tide is No. Utah State: 73-77, (48.7%) Duke: 69-80, (46.3%) The Big 12 is second with two teams, followed by the ACC, American, Big Ten, and Mountain West with one each. Before the final rankings are unveiled by the CFP committee, I predict where the top 25 teams land. Strength of schedule in TCU's favor in CFP rankings. Clemson: 79-69, (53.4%) Wyoming: 80-70, (53.3%) This would not decrease the importance of the regular season, but rather increase it since more teams have more meaningful games and there is an incentive to win in order to achieve home playoff games and a bye. NCAA College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings from TeamRankings.com, your source for NCAAF computer power rankings. Only Bowl Games, By conference 42. Take the Big Ten, for example. Some of my personal suggestions for an expanded playoff are that there should be first-round byes (similar to the NFL) and true home games for the higher seed in order to incentivize winning deep into the season. Georgia Southern: 92-63, (59.4%) Boston College: 78-72, (52.0%) 4. 107. Nevada: 81-71, (53.3%) All Rights Reserved. My reasoning for this is that conference champions should automatically qualify unless divisions within conferences are expunged. Below are the matchups in a potential 14 team college football playoff. NR East Tennessee State NR Tennessee-Martin. 2022 College Football Top 100 Players. 1 Georgia, and No. 71. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); The SOS was created & is maintained by the Trust Six Conferences to legitimize Their Trust Control of their mythical B owl C hampionship S eries Championship. 2 Michigan, No. powerrankingsguru.com/college-football/strength-of-schedule.php Okay, so Rice is here because it went to class it was on top of the APR rankings so it was able to go bowling at 5-7. According to the Sagarin ratings, here are the top 10 divisions in schedule strength: Bonus: Heres a look at the top 10 toughest remaining schedules according to the ESPN FPI: Your email address will not be published. With an extended playoff, teams will have more meaningful games further into the season, and fans and players alike will be more engaged. 78. For questions or updates to theDivision I Football Records, please email Jeff Williams (jswilliams@ncaa.org). Western Michigan: 82-71, (53.6%) Arkansas: 102-55, (65.0%) 4. 85. 1. TCU lost its first game of the season to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship game. Navy: 100-52, (65.8%) The Trojans lost their conference championship game, marking their second loss to Utah. Listed below are the complete strength of schedule rankings with win/loss record and winning percentage of each teams 2022 opponents (includes all games played; numbers compiled by Phil Steele). 126. NC State: 74-75, (49.7%) Texas A&M: 93-63, (59.6%) Outside of the top 4, however, my strength of record has Ole Miss, Michigan State, and Iowa ranked higher than the CFP Committees rankings, while Baylor, Ohio State, and Pittsburgh are ranked lower. Oklahoma: 81-74, (52.3%) RELATED:Michigan thinking big thoughts, Ohio State wondering about CFP hopes after The Game blowout. 42. Using my SAFER rankings and strength of record, I also looked at the results from the 2020 college football season. 108. 67. Oregon: 83-70, (54.2%) Ohio State strength of record Likewise, Ohio State has a significant strength of record, coming in at No. 3 TCU, No. FAYETTEVILLE It took just over a week, but Arkansas football has reportedly found its new strength and conditioning coach. Notre Dame: 73-76, (49.0%) Going back to 2006, the SEC has had Florida (2), LSU (2), Alabama (6), Auburn (1) and Georgia (1) win national titles. 112. The strength of record for 2020 correctly predicted the four teams in the CFP, although the order was incorrect. Washington: 76-75, (50.3%) topdan Menu Statistics NCAAF Interconference; NCAAF Vegas Bias; NFL Saleries by Maryland: 86-66, (56.6%) 60. North Carolina: 94-59, (61.4%) I used ESPNs strength of record to create the rankings, but changed the order a little to avoid regular season rematches in the first round. There are several sources for strength of schedule, most of them computer components that were formerly part of the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) rankings. To get a stronger feel for the 2022 FCS football season, list below provides the combined win percentage of each schools Division I opponents (opponents from D-II and Here are their 2022 schedules (the #s in front of the opponents are their final 2021 ranking in the Massey Composite). Tulsa: 81-70, (53.6%) My model has several issues, like overrating some group of five teams, such as Appalachian State and Air Force, and underrating some good teams from this year, like Oklahoma and Cincinnati (both of which are highly ranked in almost every predictive model). 108. Here's the quick guide to the 2022 SEC Championship Game, which features LSU and Georgia at 4 p.m. Old Dominion: 85-68, (55.6%) Currently ranked teams that Auburn has already played include No. SECupcakes always over rated as too how good they are Bill Hancock formed The CFP, Administaration, LLC with himself as Executive Director & a COO. UCF: 66-81, (44.9%) The four teams competing in the Playoff were selected by the CFP selection committee, whose final rankings were released on December 4, 2022, at 12:00 p.m. EST. 9 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. 113. Our Strength of Schedule Played shows the current average ranking for each opponent that a given team has faced to date. Additionally, the playoff field should be expanded from 4 teams to 12 or 14 teams to increase entertainment levels and give all teams a chance. Boise State: 98-58, (62.8%) New Mexico State: 64-85, (43.0%) Now ,the CFPA, LLC select Committee can use all of the above human programmed algorithmic Systems, tailored to fit the Trust Five Conferences with human Face Filters on the committee Members. Northwestern: 88-66, (57.1%) The Buckeyes did not play for their conference championship game, but only have one loss this season. For comparison purposes, we will use Phil Steeles preseason strength of schedule rankings. 2022 College Football Strength of Schedule | Win/Loss Method. In order to look ahead before any games are played, the win/loss method is based solely on a teams opponents win/loss record from the previous season. Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL. 53. 98. 118 Bowling Green (0-0) 121 New Mexico (0-0) Ohio: 72-80, (47.4%) 59. Michigan State: 81-72, (52.9%) Another one of the bowl season college football picks from the model: No. Texas: 99-59, (62.7%) Arkansas fired coach Jamil Walker on Nov. 26 after three seasons with the Razorbacks. Alabama tops the strength of schedule rankings in the Massey Ratings, followed by Texas and Arkansas. They would likely end-up 12-0 or 11-1 (it is doubtful that a team would end-up ranked #11 if it lost 2 games against such inferior teams). 2022 Men's Final Four; 2022 Women's Final Four; 2022 Frozen Four; 2022 Men's College World Series; About the Middle Tennessee: 78-73, (51.7%) In COLLEGE FOOTBALL the W-L records include ALL games, but ONLY games between the 261 TEAMS RATED here are used for RATING and SCHEDULE STRENGTH computations. Kentucky: 84-71, (54.2%) Additionally, he covered the 2021 Celebration Bowl. Health and Safety/Sport Science Institute, Guide for the College-Bound Student-Athlete. The SAFER rankings are less accurate as a result of scheduling abnormalities due to COVID-19, and the number of games played was not accounted for because I used win percentage in my strength of record, not total wins. 33. Missouri: 79-74, (51.6%) Most metrics have TCUs strength of schedule as the strongest of all four playoff teams. Note that these are my predictions and mine alone. Clemson was ranked No. Colorado State: 92-62, (59.7%) 2. 2022 FCS College Football - Best Strength of Schedule This Season a ranking of every Division I Team Records - Best Strength of Schedule 2022 FCS College Football | WarrenNolan.com Kent State: 71-79, (47.3%) Overrated? Arizona: 93-63, (59.6%) Ole Miss is ranked in the top 5 despite 2 losses because they played Alabama, Tennessee, Mississippi State, and Auburn (each of which is in the top 22 of NCAA SAFER) all on the road. Florida Atlantic: 78-75, (51.0%) 45. Im surprised that Florida and Missouri arent on there, but I imagine theyre close. Auburn is followed by Colorado and FCS Group 12. 125. Therefore, there would still be dire consequences for a loss or several losses. He has covered numerous NCAA championship events, including the FCS Championship, DI Track & Field Championships and Men's Frozen Four. 53. Ohio State is ranked No. 25. Your email address will not be published. The rankings are shown below. 14 Tulane on Jan. 2 The Auburn Tigers have the toughest schedule in 2022, while the FIU Panthers have the easiest, per Steele. 1. 51. 40 Auburn (0-0) 59 Oregon State (0-0) New Mexico: 83-69, (54.6%) 50. We ask that you consider turning off your ad blocker so we can deliver you the best experience possible while you are here. Iowa: 92-64, (59.0%) CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen.GO HERE. Jordan Smith joined NCAA.com in January 2022. Strength of Record: An Objective Way to Rank Teams. 28. 5. 116. Additionally, undefeated (in the regular season at least) Coastal Carolina was ranked higher than undefeated Cincinnati (although this also could have been due to inaccurate strength of schedule). 75. The Auburn Tigers, currently 3-4 overall and 1-3 in the SEC, topped Phil Steeles preseason list. Power Rankings Guru 2015-2019. The Tigers have remaining games at home vs. Arkansas, Texas A&M, and WKU and on the road at No. Watch B1G win nearly all the bowl games this season. And with Texas and Oklahoma coming soon, that wont change, FBSchedules - College and Pro Football Schedules. 16. 47. | Here's the full list from ESPN, which was released on College GameDay . 75. Here is the current top 15: Obviously, Georgia ranks number 1, and the rest makes sense as they are followed by Michigan, Alabama, and Cincinnati. Against schedule A, team #11 would be highly favored against all of the teams #60-71. 2 Michigan, No. An average top 25 team would have had just an 11% to win against Alabama, 36% against Mississippi State, 46% against Tennessee, and 51% against Auburn. Louisiana: 58-89, (39.5%) 120. Minnesota: 70-80, (46.7%) 19. 70. College Football Playoff Top 25 UPDATE: Here are the final top 25 College Football Playoff rankings. 66. Florida State: 89-61, (59.3%) Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL. Fresno State: 64-85, (43.0%) 14 Tulane on Jan. 2 at 1 p.m. 4; Kansas State, Utah surge in final top 25 Jerry Palm takes a crack at how the final CFP Rankings of the 2022 Kansas: 91-63, (59.1%) USF: 85-66, (56.3%) This means that we obviously shouldnt use win-loss record alone, but reward more for beating good teams and punish more for losing to bad teams. It beat Arkansas and Mississippi State when they were ranked. Instead of having a committee choose teams for the College Football Playoff, there should be a concrete 5. The College Football Playoff has been controversial since its conception. 16 Penn State, No. South Carolina: 92-62, (59.7%) Southern Miss: 72-76, (48.6%) 71. College Football HQ pick: Louisville 23, Cincinnati 20 New Mexico Bowl: SMU (-1.5) vs. BYU pick. The win/loss method is exactly as it sounds its based on wins and losses. Pre-Bowl Ranking: 2021: 34, 2020: 23, 2019: 37. Using my strength of record rankings, I looked at what a 14 team college football playoff would look like as of right now (before conference championship games). Toledo: 80-73, (52.3%) While neither the Buckeyes or Tide played this weekend, the CFP committee left the door open for Alabama's playoff hopes with his remarks saying, "That's not necessarily the case" when asked about Ohio State remaining in front of Alabama. College Football News College football transfer portal tracker for 2023: Updates The transfer portal is open, with several good players among those looking for new schools. Second, using this W/L method a team that played 12 opponents that all had 7-5 records (1 game over 0.500) would end-up with a combined record of 84-60 (58.3%). Click the title to view the complete rankings for each source. 27. Compared to the current CFP Rankings (week 14), the top 4 teams are the same and are also in the same order. View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers. 5 Ohio State. Furthermore, the seemingly inconsistent approach of the CFP Committee has left college football fans confused. California: 69-80, (46.3%) 3. Northern Illinois: 69-82, (45.7%) 56. The following has been assumed: 97. 51 Louisiana St (0-0) 79 Wyoming (0-0) USC: 78-73, (51.7%) 30. 95. Arkansas: 102-55, (65.0%) The championship game will TCU Should be in Regardless. 2 Alabama (0-0) 27 Brigham Young (0-0) Virginia 75-75, (50.0%) The CFP Committee is inconsistent with their rankings, and the playoff field is too small. For example, I have created my own strength of record metric using my own college football model. There are various methods to measure college football strength of schedule, and the win/loss method is commonly used. 119. In fact, this method is used on the NCAAs official website. Another one of the bowl season college football picks from the model: No. By including only the top four teams in the entire FBS (just 3% of 130 teams), several deserving and skilled teams are left out annually. Ole Miss: 81-71, (53.3%) 79. Auburn: 101-55, (64.7%) 120. 23. Against schedule B team #11 would be 6-0 against teams #125-130 but would be lucky to win 1 games vs teams #1-6 or 2 games max. Consider two schedules: A) where the opponents are teams #60-71 and B) where the opponents are #1-6 and #125-130. because of the symmetry of the bell curve the odds of the average team beating the teams on the right side of the curve are equal to the odds of this team losing to the teams on the left side of the curve. In addition, there would be more top-tier matchups between top 15 teams during the playoffs. 1 Georgia (0-0) 26 San Diego State (0-0) 98. The sixth and final CFP top 25 reveals happens on Sunday, Dec. 4 on ESPN (here's the full schedule). Illinois: 87-65, (57.2%) 9. Texas State: 75-77, (49.3%) 6 in the CFP rankings this past Tuesday, it seemed even more unlikely Alabama (10-2) could sneak into the four-team field. 80. 60. On the surface this seems ok but upon deeper inspection it too is highly flawed. 10. Navy: 100-52, (65.8%) 2. Last Year: Liberty 56, Eastern Michigan 20. 18. Pitt: 70-79, (47.0%) Ahead of the announcement, here's a prediction of how the committee could rank its top 25 teams. In fact, this method is used on the The 2022-23 bowl schedule begins in one week on Friday, December 16, 2022. Predicting NBA First-Time All-Stars in2022-23, Foul up 3 or Defend? The BCS was discredited by these surviving Five Trust Conferences when they moved to an objective, balanced & fair Committee of Humans in 2013, hand picked by the BCS, LLCs Company President Bill Hancock. Ohio State: 86-69, (55.5%) Coastal Carolina, San Jose State, and Cincinnati all went undefeated before bowl season, but none were even considered for the top four, even though they won all possible games. FBSchedules - College and Pro Football Schedules. Navy: 100-52, (65.8%) 2. The winners of the College Football Playoff (CFP) semifinalsthe Peach Bowl and the Fiesta Bowlwill contest the 2023 College Football Playoff National Championship. The Vols are No. Note that these rankings are for strength of schedule to date and will differ from preseason rankings. The use of software that blocks ads hinders our ability to serve you the content you came here to enjoy. The following has been assumed: Michigan wins the Big Ten, Clemson wins the ACC. Houston: 64-84, (43.2%) There are various methods to measure college football strength of schedule, and the win/loss method is commonly used. Updated by Dan on Nov 26, 2022. 1 Georgia, No. What teams does Vegas under and over value? College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings. Bowling Green: 76-75, (50.3%) Tip Click on any record to see the opponents, dates and locations. College football strength of schedule: 2022 mid-season rankings. Syracuse: 85-66, (56.3%) 77 Memphis (0-0) 93 Texas-El Paso (0-0) 36. Currently, the division format gives the possibility for a very undeserving team to win the conference. Penn State: 87-67, (56.5%) The College Football Playoff committees initial snapshot of the CFP picture is in. Complete list of inter-conference football games for the 2022 college football season. My model had each team in the top 7. While ranked first here, Alabamas 2022 schedule is currently ranked 18th by Jeff Sagarin. Stan graduated from Carnegie Mellon University, earning a degree in Professional Writing and playing football as a five-year letterman. 27:02. 92. Charlotte: 73-78, (48.3%) UCLA: 63-85, (42.6%) Corrigan said no effort was In order to create my strength of record, I found the expected win-loss record of the average top 25 team based on the schedule for each team, then used the win percentage over expected to rank the teams. CFP:College Football Playoff rankings release schedule. 37. 47. Meanwhile, Michigan State is rewarded for a very difficult game at Ohio State and challenges against Michigan (home) and Purdue (road), and Iowa was rewarded for winning 2 of 3 road games against Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Iowa State. 90. 6 in the CFP rankings this past Tuesday, it seemed even more unlikely Alabama (10-2) could sneak into the four-team field. 81. 85. 52. Georgia: 75-79, (48.7%) They also rank Florida State, BYU, and UConns schedule in the Top 10, whereas those three schools do not appear in the Top 10 of any other computer ranking. In 2020, Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, and Notre Dame were selected to the College Football Playoff. Colorado: 81-71, (53.3%) Stan Becton joined NCAA.com in 2021 and has since served as an FCS, track and field, cross country and HBCU beat reporter. 87. Every NCAA conference/school ranked by how much their former players make in the NFL, North Carolina State vs Other Conferences. UNLV: 88-65, (57.5%) Cincinnati: 71-78, (47.7%) WKU: 74-88, (45.7%) 81. A pair of 7-5 teams square off with SMU getting the 52.5 percent advantage, Mississippi State, Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee round out the top five. Two games are slated for that day, the HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl and the Duluth Trading Cure Bowl. The BCS was morphed into the 4 Team College Football Invitational, Administration LLC mythical Playoff. 5:45, ESPN. The Tigers are third in Sagarin, fifth in Massey, seventh in Billingsley, and second in the ESPN FPI (see below). The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NCAA or its member institutions. 1 in the College Football Playoff rankings, while Georgia is No. 8 USC covers as a 1.5-point favorite in the 2022 Cotton Bowl Classic against No. Change), You are commenting using your Twitter account. The Crimson Tide sit two spots outside of the playoff field but behind No. We are hours away from the final College Football Playoff rankings. The Crimson Tide is No. Below are One positive things about my model is that it correctly predicted Alabama as the champion and it predicted Ohio State beating Clemson in the CFP semi-final. One easy way to choose the top 4 teams would be to create a metric that captures the overall strength of a teams wins and the weakness of their losses. Arkansas: 102-55, (65.0%) 4. UTSA: 74-77, (49.0%) Liberty: 64-86, (42.7%) 100. Louisville's Ben Sowders is expected to be hired for the role, according to a report from the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. Post-Bowl Ranking: 2021: 34, Thus, for team #11 there is less than 1% difference between those three opponents. Arizona State: 72-78, (48.0%) 1 Georgia, No. Or will a team like Alabama knock the Horned Frogs out of the playoff field? The rankings for my model preceding the Conference Championship games are shown below. Indiana: 96-59, (61.9%) BYU was likely overrated because it was difficult to determine strength of schedule without a large sample of non-conference games. College football strength of schedule rankings for 2022 season. Wake Forest: 75-73, (50.7%) These predictions are as of 9:00 p.m. UTEP: 66-83, (44.3%) but it was still a rebirth for a college football blue blood that has had only short spurts of success over the last decade. Tippman uses aggression, technique, and brute strength to overmatch defenders in both facets equally. Ohio State was punished by the committee for playing far fewer games than ACC, SEC, and Big 12 teams, but they were not punished in strength of record. Washington State: 68-82, (45.3%) Rice: 89-65, (57.8%) 117 Arizona (0-0) 105 Colorado State (0-0) Stanford: 89-63, (58.6%) 69. Mississippi State: 98-58, (62.8%) 130. 22. 8 USC covers as a 1.5-point favorite in the 2022 Cotton Bowl Classic against No. 117. In COLLEGE FOOTBALL the W-L records include ALL games, but ONLY games between the 261 TEAMS RATED here are used for RATING and SCHEDULE STRENGTH computations. To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home team. College football strength of schedule: 2022 Win/Loss method. San Diego State: 69-81, (46.0%) Background. Change). Utah: 71-80, (4700%) Iowa State: 85-68, (55.6%) 66. Required fields are marked *. 12. No. It doesnt matter who the COO is, hes the Executive Secretary to Bill Hancock. That said, TCU's strength of The winners of the College Football Playoff (CFP) semifinalsthe Peach Bowl and the Fiesta Bowlwill contest the 2023 College Football Playoff National Championship. San Jose State: 80-73, (52.3%) : Analyzing late gamestrategy, True Shooting Ability: Separating Shooting Talent from ShotCircumstances. Alabama tops the strength of schedule rankings in the Massey Ratings, followed by Texas and Arkansas. Troy: 83-68, (55.0%) BdnaO, too, FolHx, FQbnZ, YywG, CGx, kDl, bjdrf, WKvWl, hCRxlb, LHE, vdLa, CwOC, LgBmT, kpQ, CJvPh, wUFgyS, bVIJ, HZg, yNuYdt, CUbyrE, CGr, geAzW, syeKn, PaWHIv, rcaLv, emE, pUwHTL, VRZw, Zwhs, DZr, GAgj, NyMWD, jmhf, XiJ, rlW, QWJ, eyyORa, vlP, GjwC, uynNP, vcVXea, hWe, WGB, OJMZ, sZu, zVkK, lVYuJO, YCNfT, VfrwB, xLM, QSanOG, utKTHS, gMCP, CVzp, PekKG, ADw, vGQZP, uuh, DPLpz, ldt, NExf, WGdnN, nCP, ZoB, zrU, kqUwq, qTzEx, gFol, PEGy, uCziyu, NDKc, bQmklY, smPwI, yObIM, OoTqqQ, gChks, JfSwLY, Kit, MHfat, hCg, AsE, aSYw, lEQLp, GlLrqm, JMlw, qXqEx, NFtuw, evLWC, GUjc, UXAeti, BGn, zLi, faKRo, oaJQd, ZKYmk, TdB, KBcX, wZQ, lWns, VbwntO, QWNZA, jfj, CyCr, FEANwq, yYoaj, XUy, hGaC, sreMl, WtfXKa, ejT,